Cost Benefit Analysis of Multimodal Transportation Systems in Nigeria: A Financial Perspective on Long-term Sustainability

Abstract

This study evaluates the impact of cost benefit analysis of multimodal transportation systems on the financial long-term sustainability of Nigeria’s transport infrastructure. Recognizing the critical role that transport infrastructure plays in economic development, the research focuses on how the costs incurred and benefits derived from multimodal projects influence the sustained financial viability of the sector. Using annual data from 2003 to 2023, key variables such as budget execution rate (proxy for financial sustainability), project costs, and benefits generated were analyzed through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling approach. The findings reveal a negative but statistically insignificant short-run effect of project costs on financial sustainability in Nigeria. Conversely, benefits derived from multimodal systems show a positive yet insignificant influence, indicating potential for enhanced revenue streams to support sustainability if properly harnessed. These results emphasize the necessity for improved cost controls, enhanced benefit realization strategies, and stable fiscal policies to promote enduring financial health in Nigeria’s multimodal transport sector. The study contributes to existing literature by bridging financial analysis with multimodal transport sustainability within a developing country context, offering valuable insights for policymakers, infrastructure planners, and stakeholders aiming to optimize investment outcomes and secure sustainable transport development.