Forecasting the Future Pattern of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Wetland Ecosystem of the Port-Harcourt Metropolis

Abstract

Changes in wetland area have notable effects on ecosystem processes and services. Forecasts on Land use and Land cover change have become a focal point in managing natural resources and monitoring environmental changes in wetland ecosystem. The Port Harcourt metropolis has witnessed extremely large growth in population in recent times and a proper evaluation would reveal a change in land use and land cover of the study area. Therefore, the model and direction of this change is not properly revealed in the works of art. However, this study was organized to forecast the future pattern of land use/land cover change in the wetland ecosystem of Port-Harcourt metropolis. In furtherance of this study, satellite imageries between 1984-2013 using Remote Sensing techniques as an analytical tools and Geo-referencing properties of 1984, 1999, 2003 and 2013 made up of universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) projection, and datum WGS 84, zone 32 were acquired. The satellite images covering the area were acquired and analyzed using ArcGIS10.0, ERDAS IMAGE 2014 and IDRISI Selva. The Markov transition probability matrix where employed in the study to forecast the future pattern of land use and land cover change in the wetland ecosystem of Port-Harcourt for the given period of 30 years (2023, 2033 and 2043).The study concludes that there will be further loss of wetlands and their resources in the metropolis, if factors contributing to it are not properly checked.